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A Wake-Up Call from the GECO 2024 Report

The latest Global Climate and Energy Outlook (GECO) 2024 delivers a stark message: the G20 countries, which are responsible for the vast majority of global greenhouse gas emissions, are not implementing policies strong enough to keep temperature rises below 2°C by the end of the century.

Governments must change course to avoid a 2.6°C temperature rise by 2100, significantly exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, which aims to prevent extreme droughts, heatwaves, and natural disasters.

Emissions Are Still Rising – and Time Is Running Out

According to the GECO 2024 report, global emissions are expected to peak sometime this decade — but simply peaking isn’t enough.

  • If current policies continue: we’re on track for +2.6°C warming. 
  • If countries implement all their current climate pledges: the world would still heat up by +2.3°C. 

Only in the most optimistic scenario – where further, faster decarbonisation happens – might we reach +1.8°C.

But even that overshoots the Paris Agreement’s goal.

To actually stay within 1.5°C, global emissions need to drop by:

  • 56% by 2035, compared to 2022 levels,
  • and 90% by 2050. 

This requires much more ambitious national climate plans – also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – than what we currently have.

2024: The Hottest Year Ever Recorded

The urgency couldn’t be clearer. Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that 2024 was the hottest year on record — dating back to 1850. It was also the first year when the average global temperature reached 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels.

Every year from 2015 to 2024 ranks among the hottest ever recorded. The consequences are already here, including devastating wildfires in California, record-breaking floods in Spain and across Central and Eastern Europe, and increasing food and water insecurity worldwide.

What Needs to Happen by 2035

The GECO 2024 report offers a hopeful, but demanding, scenario: it is still possible to limit global warming to 1.5°C — but only if the G20 takes radical action now.

By 2035, each G20 country must:

  • generate at least 50% of electricity from renewable sources,
  • raise the share of electricity in total energy use to 35%,
  • deploy carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 5–20% of industrial emissions, and enhance CO₂ absorption by better managing land and forests.

The Paris Agreement: How It Works

The Paris Agreement is based on five-year review cycles. Every country is expected to update its climate goals with more ambitious targets over time.

At COP27, countries agreed to reassess their 2030 targets by the end of 2023, aiming to align them with the 1.5°C goal. But so far, many nations are nowhere near that level of ambition.

Global Cooperation Is the Key

Achieving the Paris Agreement goals requires strong international collaboration. That includes:

  • Climate finance: developed countries supporting poorer nations, 
  • Technology sharing: making clean tech more accessible, 

Capacity building: helping vulnerable countries adapt and build resilience.

Can Zero-Emission Tech Save the Future?

Progress in renewable energy and electric vehicles is real — but it’s not enough. Sectors like heavy industry and transport are still major emitters and need to be transformed.

The good news? By 2030, zero-emission technologies could be cost-competitive in sectors responsible for 70% of global emissions. If the G20 acts decisively, we still have a chance to avoid the worst.

But the big question remains — are the world’s most powerful economies truly ready for bold, historic action? Or will they wait until it’s too late?

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