A new methodology from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) shows that teachers, programmers, analysts, and decision-makers are among the most exposed to AI’s impact on the job market. And the findings may force us to rethink how we prepare for the digital future of work.
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Unlike past waves of automation — like industrial robots replacing manual labor — today’s AI revolution targets roles that rely on thinking, not lifting. Jobs requiring complex reasoning, interpretation, and cognitive skills are now the most exposed to disruption from AI tools.
The JRC’s newly developed AI Exposure Index reveals that secondary school teachers, electrical engineers, data analysts, and office administrators top the list of professions most likely to be affected by AI. In fact, teachers rank higher in exposure than 90% of all other professions studied — a stark reminder that even traditionally “safe” jobs are not immune to the reach of generative and analytical technologies.
Meanwhile, jobs that are physically demanding and less reliant on data — such as cleaning, construction, waiting tables, or farming — appear to be more resilient. That’s because AI still struggles with tasks requiring physical coordination, sensory awareness, and spatial navigation.
How does the JRC’s AI Exposure Index work?
The JRC’s assessment uses a three-level model to evaluate how AI might affect various professions.
- AI Benchmarks: Researchers started by analyzing datasets used to train AI, such as Stanford’s Question Answering Dataset, CIFAR-10, and GLUE. These benchmarks test how well AI can understand images, language, and abstract logic — essentially the skills AI is getting better at.
- Real-World Tasks: Next, they matched these AI capabilities to real-world tasks performed in different jobs — from diagnosing medical conditions to making policy decisions.
- Job Classification: Finally, they linked these tasks to the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO), which includes more than 100 job categories.
This system allows for a detailed look at which roles are highly vulnerable and which are relatively resistant to AI disruption. Unsurprisingly, policy experts and decision-makers emerged as high-risk. Their daily work — analyzing data, negotiating, and making strategic decisions — aligns closely with the skill set of today’s most advanced AI systems.
AI research focus deepens the divide
There’s another important trend to consider: what kind of AI is being developed right now.
Between 2020 and 2024, most advances in AI research have focused on language processing, image recognition, and video analysis — areas that further enhance AI’s ability to take on jobs involving information, communication, and analysis.
As a result, fields like education, data analysis, administration, and even creative industries could see dramatic changes. If this trend continues, professions based on interpreting and presenting information will need to evolve quickly to stay relevant.
That doesn’t mean jobs will vanish overnight. In many cases, AI will reshape roles, not erase them. Tasks like drafting reports, analyzing data, or writing first drafts might be automated — but there will still be a need for human judgment, empathy, and ethical reasoning.
A new job market needs new public policies
The JRC’s researchers are clear: High exposure to AI doesn’t automatically mean a job is at risk. But it does signal the need for retraining, role adjustments, and better human-AI collaboration in the workplace.
To meet this challenge, public policy must adapt. Education systems — both formal and lifelong learning — need to move beyond teaching technical tools. They must focus on uniquely human skills like:
- Emotional intelligence
- Interpersonal communication
- Cognitive flexibility
- Decision-making under uncertainty
At the same time, employment policy needs to respond to changes such as job polarization, wage restructuring, and worker reskilling. Governments must not only anticipate trends but also create real-time tools to monitor and respond to change.
The AI Exposure Index could become one of those tools — continuously updated and data-driven, offering a more reliable foundation for policy than fear-based narratives.
Europe looks ahead
As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted in her 2023 State of the Union address, the EU must get ready for the “new challenges posed by artificial intelligence.” The JRC’s initiative is a concrete step in that direction. It offers a data-informed lens to view the future of work — one that replaces panic with foresight, adaptability, and smart planning.
If you’re a student, teacher, policymaker, or future job-seeker in the EU, the message is clear: AI isn’t just coming — it’s already changing the rules. But with the right tools, skills, and mindset, we can shape that change to work in our favor.
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