Sticky floors


The post-war Europe, with its political consensus on a welfare state and mild state intervention in the economy, was presented as the natural place for social mobility. In practice, education, work, and social welfare could balance people’s starting points—and indeed, the top 13 countries in the world in terms of social mobility are all in Europe, with Denmark at the top and the Scandinavian countries serving as an international model. Behind this impressive statistic, however, lies a dysfunction: it seems that the social elevator has stalled. Incomes have stagnated, while more than 20% of Europeans currently live at risk of poverty or social exclusion. At the center of this are young people aged 25–34, who are at the peak of a lack of dynamic social mobility, with them now having less chance of surpassing their parents financially than any previous generation.

More than one-third of Europeans face significant barriers to professional development directly related to their parents’ economic background. Data show that this socioeconomic factor determines a child’s future in at least four areas: education, academic performance, access to employment, and access to highly skilled positions. Already in 2018, before the pandemic, data from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) estimated that it would take around five generations for children born into the lowest income bracket to achieve the average income, revealing the fallacy of the system. Beyond the obvious political consequences of this intergenerational immobility, or as the OECD calls it, “sticky floors,” it is particularly acute in Southern and Eastern Europe, where the 2008 crisis burdened already weak systems of social mobility.

 

The phenomenon also has a socio-psychological dimension. According to statistics from the European Commission’s JRC (2020), only 26% of Greeks believe that “life is fair,” compared to a European average of 43%, with the most optimistic societies found in Denmark (72%), the Netherlands (68%), and Sweden (65%), and the most disappointed in Southern and Eastern Europe, where distrust of institutions and low social mobility perpetuate and exacerbate the sense of injustice. At the same time, the same study highlights the decline of the most traditional and structured system of social advancement: education. The same study shows that the chances of a child going to university increase by 43% when their parents are graduates, confirming that opportunity has become a family inheritance, perpetuating educational systems in a common, two-speed ecosystem, largely predetermining one’s professional future. 

Currently, instead of halting this phenomenon, forecasts indicate that with the advancement of technology and automation, 63% of lower and middle-level jobs are at risk, while highly skilled workers will find opportunities to benefit from the digital transformation. However, there is also a counterargument, according to which artificial intelligence mainly threatens cognitive and creative jobs, which were once considered secure and superior on the social scale, such as journalism, legal research, and even design. In contrast, blue-collar professions remain resilient, as they require physical presence, judgment, and adaptability that machines do not possess. So, while white-collar workers see their uniqueness challenged by algorithms, blue-collar workers are gaining recognition, better pay, and, perhaps, unexpected revenge in the age of artificial intelligence.

 

OECD Social Mobility Report


Source: OECD (2022)

Ηermetically sealed floors

All evidence suggests that the upper echelons of society have begun to close themselves off; rather, locked as they were, possession of the keys is recycled among those already residing there. The upper strata no longer make room for new residents; the top of the income and professional pyramid has become almost hereditary. OECD data show that the richest 10% of households now own more than 50% of the total wealth in the organization’s countries, while children in this group are five times more likely to reach high-income positions than children of workers with the same educational qualifications, possibly revealing a lack of cultural symbolic capital where the advancement system requires—and is not codified in children from lower social strata, regardless of whether they possess the formal qualifications.

Examples that reinforce the above can be found both in the United Kingdom, where only 15% of board members in the 350 largest companies come from low socioeconomic backgrounds, and in Germany, where the children of executives are 17 times more likely to reach management positions than their peers without a “family network.” The issue of the wide inequality gap, of course, does not only concern senior or top-level hierarchical employment relationships, but also salaried employees, where workers from disadvantaged backgrounds earn 20% less on average than their colleagues performing the same tasks, even when they have the same qualifications.

The historical backbone of European mobility, the middle class, appears to be crumbling, wealth inequality is becoming increasingly pronounced, with 10% now owning almost 60% of assets. However, beyond the standard of living in terms of everyday life, the really critical factor is that these data reveal a concentration of power that translates into political capital and influence at the expense of the underprivileged, while in the emerging order of things, this new order that is emerging cannot articulate a discourse that serves it, finding itself at a historical crossroads. Meanwhile, it is interesting to note the difference in understanding of the phenomenon between north and south, where in the south it is treated as almost a natural state of affairs and is linked to questioning of institutions and accusations of corruption in the system, while in the north the issue is considered solvable through political will and institutional pressure.

 

Reforms need justice

European redistribution policies are no longer sufficient to reverse the concentration of opportunities; bold reforms are needed. the quality of preschool education, access to mentoring networks, and active employment policies can serve as a precursor but will not limit the phenomenon as a whole; however, they can become essential infrastructures of democracy.

Social mobility is an indicator of who has the power to change their life and who is trapped at the starting point. Stagnation in Europe does not stem from a lack of individual effort, but from the accumulation of privileges that becomes a mechanism of control. In other words, some people have a master key, while others try to open doors with a pair of pliers. Reforms to address this cannot be effective or even implemented without changing the architecture of power. The institutions that define public education, the labor market, the taxation of the wealthy (especially inheritance, since it is crucial given that 40% of the richest Europeans have inherited a significant portion of their wealth) and even the right to housing, are basic prerequisites not for some socialist utopia but for a return to the post-war consensus, while at the same time ceasing to treat poverty as an individual failing and success as a moral virtue.

The promise of a fair Europe, therefore, seems today more like a nostalgic image of post-war optimism than an existing reality. Europe’s challenge is to transform social mobility from an indicator of growth into an act of justice. Because as long as the structure remains the same, mobility will be like the average European citizen searching for treasure at the end of the rainbow.

OECD Social Mobility Chart


Source: OECD (2022)

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