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Article by Luca Pons – Journalist, Fanpage.it

Following the [Italian] Senate’s final approval of the justice reform , which provides for the separation of careers and a radical overhaul of the CSM, the legislative process is not yet over. The political battle will shift from Parliament to the rest of the country. A constitutional referendum will be held to reject or confirm the law.

This will be the decisive step. Since this is not an abrogative referendum, there will be no quorum: the result will be valid regardless of turnout. Furthermore, unlike abrogative referendums, the wording on the ballot paper will be more direct: Yes to approve, No to repeal the reform. The date could be postponed until next summer, but an attempt will be made to set it between March and April. The center-right, as well as Azione, are in favor of the reform. The other parties are opposed, albeit for different reasons.

What happens now to justice reform?

Now that the Senate has given its final green light, the process for the constitutional referendum has begun. It is governed by a 1970 law . The text will be published in the Official Journal, with a note specifying that it was approved, but with a majority lower than two-thirds (otherwise, it could have entered into force immediately). From that moment, a three-month countdown will begin to request the referendum.

I can do it with 500,000 voters, or five regional councils, or even a fifth of the members of the Chamber of Deputies or Senate. This will be the chosen path, because it’s the quickest, and there won’t be any problem finding 20% ​​of deputies or senators willing to sign. The opposition is primarily pushing for the referendum, but the center-right also said yesterday it intends to support it, to confirm the reform with a popular vote.

As mentioned, there are three months to complete the process. In theory, therefore, it could be done until the end of January 2026. But everyone is interested in moving more quickly to speed up the voting process. Therefore, the official request for a referendum can be expected to arrive much sooner.

All the steps towards the constitutional referendum

The parliamentarians’ signatures will be submitted to the Supreme Court of Cassation. Here, the judges will establish a Central Referendum Office, which will analyze the request to ensure it complies with all the required rules. The decision must be issued within 30 days, provided there are no irregularities. Otherwise, it will take a few more days to resolve them.

Once the judges give the green light, the decision will be passed to the President of the Republic. Sergio Mattarella, with a decree approved by the Council of Ministers, will formally set the date. He will have 60 days to do so. The vote must be held “on a Sunday between the 50th and 70th day following” the Head of State’s announcement.

So: up to three months to request a referendum; one month for judges; two months for the President of the Republic; and finally 50 to 70 days for the vote. If this were to be done, it could go on until summer 2026. But it’s well known that the summer months are a complicated time for politics. Citizens’ attention wanes, and getting people to the polls is more difficult.

However, assuming the referendum request arrives before the three months are up (perhaps even in the next few weeks), the calculations point to the timeframe the government has also indicated as the best: a Sunday between March and April. This is the day when the vote will most likely be held.

Which parties are in favor and which are against the separation of careers?

Naturally, all the center-right parties supported the reform after voting for it in Parliament. The reform is a key issue for Forza Italia, which has always been critical of justice, but the Brothers of Italy and the League, along with Us Moderates, also support the bill and will campaign for a Yes vote.

Along with the center-right, Carlo Calenda’s Azione party also voted in favor of the reform. Calenda defended the law’s content on social media and criticized the government’s attacks on the judiciary, but hasn’t yet clarified whether his party will openly campaign for a Yes vote. “Nothing else will be discussed anymore. Jobs, healthcare, schools, industry (in pieces), and energy will disappear from the debate. Enjoy yourselves,” he commented.

All the other opposition parties, however, were opposed. The harshest attacks came from the Democratic Party, the Five Star Movement, and the Green-Left Alliance: “This reform serves to free up our hands and place ourselves above the Constitution,” commented Democratic Party secretary Elly Schlein. “I believe it’s a political objective to evade any judicial oversight,” agreed Giuseppe Conte. For the AVS, Angelo Bonelli described it to Fanpage.it as an “authoritarian shift.”

Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva also criticized the reform, but abstained in the Chamber. The former prime minister called it a “little reform,” while downplaying the concerns of other members of the minority: “If you think you can build an alternative platform to the right based on the demands of the National Magistrates’ Party, you’re driving out a lot of reformists who want guarantees in the center-left,” he said. In short, the campaign for a “Yes” vote will likely begin with very distinct tones and objectives.

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