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The New START treaty expires in February 2026, and its verification mechanisms have long stopped functioning. The world is entering a new age of three-way nuclear competition between the United States, Russia, and China.

Events at the end of October may turn out to be the moment when a three-decade period of strategic stability — built on treaties between nuclear powers — effectively ended.

On 26 October, the Kremlin announced a “successful” and “final” test of the 9M730 Burevestnik strategic cruise missile, known to NATO as SSC-X-9 Skyfall. Three days later, Russia showcased the “Poseidon” nuclear-powered torpedo. Both weapons use nuclear propulsion and are declared to have “unlimited range” while being capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

On 31 October, President Donald Trump made an announcement that sparked widespread international outrage.

“Due to the testing programs of other countries, I have directed the Department of War to begin testing our nuclear weapons on equal terms,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Security expert Mariusz Marszałek argues that Russia is using such demonstrations to signal its readiness for strategic rivalry with the U.S., despite its losses in the war against Ukraine.

“It’s a message to Washington: Russia may be losing in a conventional conflict, but it remains a nuclear power that cannot be ignored,” he stresses.

International outrage

The U.S. decision to restart nuclear weapons testing was met with criticism and fears of destabilizing what remains of the global arms-control system. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said the move was meant to “confirm the reliability of the American arsenal,” emphasizing that U.S. weapons are “fully functional but require regular checks.”

Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev noted that “although the United States never ratified the CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty), it has not withdrawn its signature.” He added that even without ratification, Washington is obligated to refrain from actions that undermine the treaty’s purpose.

UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq urged all players to avoid steps that could escalate tensions. “We must avoid any nuclear actions that could lead to miscalculation or escalation with catastrophic consequences. We cannot forget the devastating legacy of more than 2,000 nuclear tests conducted in the past 80 years,” Haq said.

New START: a treaty that exists only on paper

The New START treaty, signed in April 2010 and in force since February 2011, formally remains in effect until 5 February 2026. It sets limits for both the U.S. and Russia: 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, 700 deployed delivery systems, and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers.

This is a significant reduction compared with the original START I treaty from 1991, which allowed 6,000 warheads and 1,600 launchers.

However, for many months New START has been functioning only in theory. Its verification system has collapsed.

In February 2023, Vladimir Putin announced the “suspension” of Russia’s participation in the treaty, citing “hostile Western actions” and alleged U.S. technical violations.

The Biden administration responded in June 2023, stating that Russia was not complying with the treaty’s provisions and imposing reciprocal measures — suspending data exchanges on nuclear arsenals, notifications about system status, and telemetry information from missile tests.

A U.S. State Department report suggested that Russia likely exceeded the 1,550-warhead limit last year. Without inspections or data sharing, verification has become nearly impossible.

Burevestnik: a “Flying Chernobyl” in a legal grey zone

According to General Valery Gerasimov, the October Burevestnik test involved a 15-hour flight covering 14,000 kilometers at roughly 933 km/h.

Marszałek explains that Burevestnik “can maneuver repeatedly, change course, and approach targets from unpredictable directions, making radar detection extremely difficult.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insisted that the test involved “only the propulsion system” and was “not a nuclear test.” He stressed that Russia “did not violate the CTBT, as no detonation occurred.”

Marszałek adds that the missile uses a miniature nuclear reactor as a ramjet propulsion system, theoretically giving it unlimited range.

Burevestnik: a missile with “no range limit”

The arms-control expert notes that Burevestnik is a cruise missile that Russia claims has “unlimited range” thanks to a nuclear-powered scramjet engine.

“It works like a jet engine in which a small reactor heats air to extreme temperatures, generating thrust,” Marszałek explains.

Unlike traditional cruise missiles such as Tomahawk or Kalibr, Burevestnik is not constrained by fuel capacity. “All conventional missiles must carry enough fuel for the flight, forcing engineers to balance range and warhead weight,” he adds.

The Poseidon torpedo test

On 2 October, Russia held a launch ceremony for the new nuclear submarine Khabarovsk, designed specifically to carry Poseidon torpedoes.

“This weapon is more powerful than intercontinental missiles. There is nothing like it today,” the Russian president said.

Russian officials framed the presentation of new weapon systems as part of their strategic nuclear deterrence.

Kosachev described the weapons as Russia’s response to Western actions. “In recent years, the West has acted arrogantly, assuming it would face no resistance. Now it sees that Russia’s answer is powerful — and its name is Oreshnik, Burevestnik, and Poseidon,” he declared. Oreshnik is a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

The global CTBTO monitoring system detected no signs of nuclear explosions. CTBTO Executive Secretary Dr. Robert Floyd warned that any nuclear test would be “harmful and destabilizing.”

Monitoring systems confirm: no nuclear explosions

Neither the Burevestnik nor Poseidon test produced any signals indicating a nuclear detonation. Although Moscow formally avoids treaty violations, testing nuclear-powered weapons carries severe risks of radioactive contamination.

The Burevestnik program has long faced technical issues. In August 2019, during a test at the Nyonoksa base on the White Sea, the missile crashed into the water, and its reactor exploded during recovery operations. Two soldiers and five Rosatom engineers were killed, and radiation levels in the area spiked.

Dr. Floyd warned again on 30 October that any nuclear explosion would be “damaging and destabilizing,” assuring that the monitoring system remains fully operational.

The China factor: the end of bilateral arms control

Marszałek notes that “the world no longer consists of two equal superpowers like during the Cold War.” The bipolar order has been replaced by a “multipolar system in which arms control is becoming increasingly difficult.”

A June 2025 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) concluded that “the era of gradual reductions in nuclear arsenals is over.”

According to Pentagon and SIPRI data, China has expanded its arsenal from around 300 warheads in 2020 to roughly 600 today, and may exceed 1,000 by 2030.

On 3 September 2025, Beijing unveiled a full nuclear triad capable of striking the continental United States: the H-6N bomber with an air-launched ballistic missile, the JuLang-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, and new variants of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Marszałek stresses that “disarmament efforts make sense only if they include all major players.” This shift is pushing both the United States and Russia toward “new thinking about the global balance of power.”

Calls to keep dialogue alive

Institutions such as the CTBTO, the United Nations, and the European Union are urging nuclear states to maintain the testing moratorium and restart arms-control talks.

Experts highlight the importance of pushing the CTBT into force and preserving channels for strategic communication to prevent nuclear escalation.

Marszałek says Burevestnik has become “a symbol of abandoning the technological arms-control regime.” He adds that “the Americans will likely develop similar systems to counter emerging threats.”

“But until there is a true thaw in international relations, the world will remain stuck in the same place — in a state of strategic uncertainty,” he warns.

The world has entered a time of “life after New START” — an era of qualitatively unrestricted and quantitatively unverifiable, three-way nuclear competition, in which two key post-Cold-War norms have collapsed: verification and testing taboos.

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