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Although it is winter, the challenge knows no seasonal timing, but rather serves as a reminder of the issue at hand. Southern Europe is entering the hottest decade in its modern history, with taps creaking before they drip. Water scarcity has become a structural crisis stretching from the Balkans to the Iberian Peninsula. In the portfolios of the environment ministries of southern countries, the word “water” has long ceased to be taken for granted, while at the same time European statistics show that this crisis no longer knows geographical boundaries: 34% of the EU’s population and almost 40% of its land area are directly affected by water scarcity.

Climate collapse acts as a risk multiplier, with Europe at the center of this crisis as the fastest warming continent in the world, with tangible consequences such as longer hot summers, a reduction in rainfall and river levels, and their existence reaching historic lows. Even countries with a “wet” reputation, such as the United Kingdom or Germany, are seeing record temperatures broken and water reserves shrinking.

In the Mediterranean basin, the situation is different in terms of the scale of the challenge: up to 70% of the population of Mediterranean countries faces water shortages every summer, while tourism and agriculture—the two most water-intensive sectors of the European economy—are putting even more pressure on a system that is already overheating. This reality can no longer be managed through “emergency measures” and restrictions alone. It is the result of decades of underinvestment, losses from leaks that reach 50–60% in some countries, and a mindset that continues to treat water as an unlimited commodity on a changing planet. In Europe, an average of 25% of water resources are lost within the supply infrastructure itself, with the cost to businesses reaching €80 billion per year.

Eurostat statistics highlight the structural depth of the problem, with countries such as Cyprus and Malta already below the critical threshold of 1,700 cubic meters per capita per year—the international threshold that signals a state of “water stress.” At the same time, water resources are declining in areas that were once considered stable, while the dependence of many European countries on cross-border water flows is creating additional geopolitical headaches. Against this backdrop, Southern Europe serves as an early warning for the future of the entire continent, with empty dams, water supply interruptions, aging water systems, and governments activating expensive modernization plans are the first chapters of a story that is likely to unfold across Europe.

Southern Europe in distress

Southern Europe has become the testing ground for European water scarcity. In Bulgaria, infrastructure is collapsing; in Cyprus, dams are almost completely empty; and in Greece, one of the largest water protection programs in its history is underway. In short, the Southern Front reflects the harsh reality of the new water era.

In Bulgaria, more than 260,000 people struggle even with basic needs such as bathing, washing clothes, and even flushing the toilet, due to a water supply system that loses more than 50% of its water before it even reaches homes. In cities such as Pleven, with 110,000 inhabitants, the supply is limited to just two and a half hours a day. The network is “over 40 years old,” extremely degraded, and “now creates problems that we cannot manage,” as the Bulgarian Association of Hydraulic Engineers admits. The government promises upgrades, but the same problems arose last year, while reports of possible misuse of European funds for water projects add another layer of mistrust.

In Cyprus, the southernmost European country in the Mediterranean, the situation is even more dramatic. The country’s large dams closed in the summer with only 14.7% capacity, the lowest levels in recent years. Kouris, the island’s largest dam, fell to 13.1%, while Asprokremmos did not exceed 13.6%. In the province of Nicosia, the smaller dams are on the verge of collapse, with a total volume of just 185,000 cubic meters, about 5.3% of their capacity. Two dams, Vyzakia and Argaka, have already essentially dried up, with 11,000 and 13,000 cubic meters respectively. The capital now covers its needs almost exclusively through desalination.

In Greece, the water shortage is taking a more complex form. The country, which uses about 10 billion cubic meters of water annually, is seeing its reservoirs decline to their lowest levels in decades. The government has announced a 30-year, €2.5 billion plan to secure water for Athens and Thessaloniki, the two cities that “will be hardest hit,” according to the Ministry of Environment. Since 2022, the country has been losing about 250 million cubic meters of water per year from its reserves, while rainfall has decreased by 25% and consumption has increased by 6%. Greece loses around 50% of its water to leaks, while countries such as Singapore and Israel “use the same amount of water two or three times over.”

The picture is part of a broader trend recorded by Eurostat: Southern Europe has already passed the “water stress” threshold, with countries such as Cyprus, Malta, and the Czech Republic falling below the critical level of 1,700 cubic meters per capita, while entire regions of the Mediterranean face persistent water shortages during the hot months.The wider region of southern Europe combines intense agricultural activity, overtourism, and aging critical networks. However, the reality that is emerging works like a reverse mathematical equation: as demand increases, supply decreases. With agriculture being the first and most demanding link in the chain, the situation is as follows: In Italy, 50% of water is consumed by agricultural production, in Greece the percentage reaches 80%, while warmer seasons and lack of rainfall increase irrigation needs. The shift in crop cycles, months-long droughts, and rising energy costs for pumping water create a vicious cycle: the drier the soil, the more it needs to be watered, and the faster the reservoirs empty.

The South’s second major industry, tourism, puts pressure on the system precisely during the weeks when availability is at its lowest. From the coasts of Spain to the Greek islands and Cyprus, water demand skyrockets during a period that meteorological data characterizes as “minimal or zero rainfall.” In some parts of the Mediterranean, up to 70% of the population faces seasonal shortages every summer. And behind all this lies the “invisible giant”: infrastructure. European pipelines, in many cases decades old, lose about 25% of water resources before they reach consumers, a percentage that reaches 61% in Bulgaria and falls to 5% in the Netherlands. The cost of these losses to businesses and the economy is around €80 billion per year.

At the root of all these problems lies a common denominator: Europe continues to place more emphasis on crisis management than on prevention. Despite decades of environmental policy, the reality of water has never been fully integrated into the European economic model. In many countries, the price of water remains artificially low, the logic of “unlimited supply” continues to prevail, and incentives to conserve remain limited. Southern regions will soon need “substantial improvements in agricultural and urban consumption efficiency” to avoid persistent seasonal shortages.

Overall, despite the technological possibilities for addressing the issue, Europe continues to treat water as a resource that will “somehow be found.” This perception conflicts with the facts: in many countries, pricing does not reflect the true cost of extraction, transport, and treatment, and enforcement of over-abstraction remains lax. while political leaders often avoid decisions that are considered socially or electorally painful. Eurostat emphasizes that Southern Europe needs an immediate increase in efficiency in agriculture and urban consumption to prevent permanent seasonal shortages, but the transition is being delayed by the administratively fragmented system and the uneven quality of infrastructure. The new European Water Resilience Strategy attempts to shift the framework towards a more “smart” water economy, but the gap between legislation and implementation remains wide. As droughts spread northward and now affect countries such as Germany, France, and Romania, water is in danger of becoming a new area of European inequality. Rich countries can invest in desalination, closed circuits, smart infrastructure, and transnational cooperation, poorer countries are unable to do so, trapped by the deterioration of their networks and postponing the problem to the future.

Still, the challenge isn’t just environmental. It’s economic, social, and deeply political. Water management will determine the sustainability of rural economies, the functioning of cities, tourism, and even the relationship between citizens and the state in times of stress. Europe is losing time and water due to mismanagement and infrastructure that is no longer suited to the climate we live in. Southern Europe is already on the front line. The real challenge for the next decade is whether the continent will treat water as a strategic commodity or continue to take it for granted until the opposite becomes true.

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