“We hear such exaggerated hysteria about our military pilots allegedly violating some rules and invading someone’s airspace,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “These claims are unfounded.” And a point could be made that the incidents were all mistakes. But many experts are worried that Russia is testing the West’s resolve and battle capabilities. Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert, stated that “every incursion is a rehearsal. Unless we act decisively now, we are training Moscow to believe NATO is predictable, divided, and slow.”
US intelligence officials haven’t been able to determine whether the Polish incursion was deliberate or not, because of many contradicting aspects:
The flight patterns of the drones suggest that they were jammed by Ukraine and struggling to find GPS signal. And Belarus warning Poland about stray drones could prove it was accidental or could be part of a more elaborate smokescreen, which would grant Russia deniability for its deliberate actions. This theory also plays along with the big number of drones and with how deep into Polish territory they flew (the French representative at the UN stated that one drone was found 700km away from the Ukrainian border).