Poland’s Youth Crown Conservative in Surprise Presidential Election Twist - Chapter #4

A Country Divided: The Narrowest of Margins

In the second round of the election, Karol Nawrocki, supported by the biggest opposition nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) won with 50.89% of the vote, narrowly beating Rafał Trzaskowski of prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (PO), who secured 49.11%, according to official data from the National Electoral Commission.

The election yielded an extremely close outcome, underscoring the nation’s deep political divide and precarious equilibrium. Any slight fluctuation in engagement, drive, or views among any group could have dramatically altered the results.

This year, young voters proved decisive. Bucking past trends of apathy or indecisiveness, 76.3% of 18- to 29-year-olds cast ballots – a remarkable turnout rate seldom seen in recent Polish history. They took center stage, contrary to expectations of disengagement.

However, their voting patterns defied easy categorisation. While many anticipated a strong tilt towards liberal or progressive options, the actual results revealed a far more nuanced picture.

Leftists and Libertarians Supported a Conservatist

In the first round, Sławomir Mentzen, a far-right libertarian, dominated the under-30 vote with 34.9%. Adrian Zandberg, a progressive leftist, followed with 19.8%, then Trzaskowski (12.7%), and Nawrocki (10.7%).

However, the runoff saw a major shift. Exit polls indicated Nawrocki won 53.2% of young voters, while Trzaskowski received 46.8%.

Consequently, the PiS-backed candidate captured nearly all of Mentzen’s support and, surprisingly, a portion of Zandberg’s voters. The initial youth preference for Mentzen was thus overturned in favor of Nawrocki in the final vote.

In numbers: 87% of Mentzen’s young supporters voted for Nawrocki in the runoff. Around 17% of Zandberg’s did the same.

This might seem paradoxical — going from far-left to conservative — but it wasn’t about ideology. It was about emotion.

Two Genders, Two Young Polands

Although the youth vote proved pivotal, it wasn’t monolithic. A clear gender split characterized their choices.

Progressive figures like Zandberg and Trzaskowski garnered support from young women. Conversely, young men favored Mentzen, and subsequently, Nawrocki.

Let’s look at the numbers:

• In Round 1, Mentzen had 48% support among young men, but only 21% among young women.
  
• Zandberg flipped the script: 25% among women, 13% among men.
  
• In the runoff: Trzaskowski won 54% of young women, Nawrocki took 54% of young men.
  

So Poland’s divisions are not solely ideological or generational, but also profoundly gendered. Young Poles, highly politically active, base their voting decisions on personal experiences, significantly influenced by gender roles. Consequently, women lean towards progressive, left-wing platforms, while men are more attracted to libertarian or anti-liberal viewpoints.

Voting Against, Not for

Karol Nawrocki’s success with young voters isn’t a resurgence of ultra-conservative Law and Justice’s popularity among youth. Rather, it signifies a trend where young people oppose the status quo, not necessarily endorse a specific party or platform.

Nawrocki’s win wasn’t about his ideology triumphing, but a pushback against Rafał Trzaskowski, perceived by many as the face of a liberal elite they felt alienated from.

While young voters played a key role in the democratic opposition’s 2023 parliamentary victory, some shifted in 2025. This shift could stem from disillusionment with the pace of change or weariness of constant rhetoric about “democratic threats.”

Ultimately, Nawrocki presented an alternative, or at least the perception of one, and that proved sufficient to sway these voters.