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Polls Suggest a Dead Heat Ahead of the Final Round

According to the latest polls, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, holds a razor-thin lead – just one percentage point – over Karol Nawrocki, the conservative candidate supported by the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS).

Multiple polling agencies – including Opinia24 for the private TVN broadcaster, IBRiS for the public Polskie Radio 24, and Pollster for the Super Express tabloid – report nearly identical figures.

Opinia24 survey shows that Trzaskowski would receive 47% of the vote, up 2 percentage points since the previous poll, while Nawrocki would receive 46%, down by one point. The remaining 5% of voters remain undecided, with an additional 2% refusing to answer.

Too Close to Call: Could Undecided Voters Tip the Scale?

An election forecast published by Onet on May 25 paints a picture of a country on a knife’s edge: the chances of either candidate winning are described as “extremely balanced”, with the final result possibly determined by fractions of a percent.

The deciding factor? Undecided voters, who still represent a significant portion of the electorate.

A new poll conducted by UCE Research for Onet and released on May 26 offers further insight: a vast majority of voters (74.3%) say they will vote – but not out of enthusiasm. Instead, they admit they will back the candidate they see as the “lesser evil.”

Only 10.1% of respondents express clear support for a preferred candidate, while 15.6% remain unsure.

Controversies and Scandals: Will They Matter at the Ballot Box?

Despite a series of personal and political controversies, Karol Nawrocki’s support has proven remarkably resilient.

Scandals have included:

  • A small Warsaw apartment allegedly acquired under unclear circumstances.
  • His documented participation in violent football fan clashes
  • His use of snus during a live televised presidential debate.

Polls suggest that these controversies have not significantly eroded Nawrocki’s base. Yet, a recent Opinia24 survey for TVN and TVN24 shows that more than half of Polish respondents view these incidents negatively.

And new allegations surfaced just yesterday. On May 26, Onet published interviews with individuals claiming to be former colleagues of Nawrocki from his time working as a security guard at the prestigious Grand Hotel in the seaside city of Sopot. They accuse him of organizing escorts for prostitutes delivered to the hotel guests – a serious claim that Nawrocki has so far not publicly addressed.

Although these sources chose to remain anonymous due to safety concerns, they state they are willing to testify in court if necessary.

A Divided Electorate, an Unpredictable Election

Poland’s 2025 presidential election has become a symbol of its ongoing political division. For young voters across Europe observing from the outside, the country’s situation offers a striking example of how polarisation, disinformation, and scandal can collide in the final stretch of a high-stakes democratic contest.

As election day approaches, one thing is clear: every vote will count – and no one can predict the outcome with certainty.

 

Written by: Barbara Bodalska / EURACTIV.pl

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