Article by Luca Pons – Fanpage.it journalist

Now the European Commission’s proposals to increase taxes on cigarettes and other tobacco products are official, written black on white. The Commission announced them yesterday, along with measures for the next European budget.These are initiatives that will now be discussed at length, may change even radically, and in any case will not come into force before 2028. But they are nonetheless the starting point for negotiations. As for tobacco, the tax hike could – according to manufacturers’ estimates – bring an increase of more than one euro per pack for cigarettes.

There are two proposals, separate though related. The first is a reform of the directive regulating tobacco taxes, which dates back to 2010. This is the proposal that most directly affects smokers, because it would raise minimum excise taxes on cigarettes, tobacco, electronic cigarettes, and so on. The second, on the other hand, concerns public budgets: it would oblige EU states to pay directly to the European Union a portion of the taxes they collect from the sale of cigarettes.

Excise tax increases on cigarettes and tobacco, by how much they go up and since when

The first measure, the increase in excise taxes on cigarettes and tobacco products, would take effect from 2028, and the first four years would be an ‘adjustment’ period for member states. Already, the European Union decides the minimum level of excise taxes that each country must charge on cigarettes and other similar products, but the amounts were decided in 2010 and are now very low, far from reality. So, it is necessary to raise them.

Not only that, but they also need to be expanded. Compared to fifteen years ago, many new products have emerged in addition to cigarettes and shredded tobacco: the various forms of electronic cigarettes, above all, but also so-called nicotine pouches. EU minimum excise taxes currently do not apply to these products, nor to raw tobacco. Therefore, each state can tax them as it sees fit. With the reform, however, they would be included and there would be equal base levels for all.

The Commission’s estimate is that with the tobacco industry’s proposed increases would come, across Europe, fifteen billion euros in extra taxes each year. As for the figures, the idea is that the minimum excise taxes could be different for each country, depending on its economic situation; but in the official text there is an indication of the minimum level to be respected:

– 215 euros per thousand cigarettes, instead of 64 euros per thousand cigarettes as is the case today
– 143 euros per thousand cigars or cigarillos, instead of the current 12 euros
– 215 euros per kilo of shredded tobacco, instead of the current 40 euros
– 108 euros per thousand heated tobacco cigarettes (today there is no minimum excise tax for these products)
– 143 euros per kilo for other tobacco products
– 12 cents per milliliter for electronic cigarette liquid, if there is a maximum of 15 mg of nicotine in each milliliter; 36 cents per milliliter, if this amount of nicotine is exceeded

These are significant increases, even though as mentioned the current minimums were decided in 2010, and for current prices they are very low. So much so, the Commission points out, that on average in all European states excise taxes on tobacco products are already more than double the EU minimum.

As for the effect on the price paid by smokers, the impact will also depend on the choices of states and manufacturers. The estimate made so far, as mentioned, is that for a pack of cigarettes the price may rise by more than one euro.

The money that states will have to pay to the EU.

The Commission’s second proposal on tobacco and cigarettes is more strictly about budgets. The EU needs to increase its revenues, and so it wants to launch a new “own resource” related to tobacco excise taxes: the Tobacco Excise Duty Own Resource, or Tedor. In essence, it consists of a payment that states would have to make each year to the EU, equal to 15 percent of revenues related to minimum excise taxes on cigarettes and tobacco.

To make it clear: if a state decides to charge smokers the minimum level of excise taxes on cigarettes, and earns a billion euros from it, then it will have to pay 15 percent of that billion to the EU; if, on the other hand, it decides to impose higher excise taxes, it will still only have to pay 15 percent of a billion (i.e., what it would have collected by charging the minimum excise taxes). The rest it can keep in its national budget. This mechanism, then, could also prompt more states to raise excise taxes to make sure they do not lose too much revenue.

Paying more, of course, will be countries with a higher percentage of smokers. Overall, the Commission has projected to collect about 11.2 billion euros annually from this new revenue.

What happens now

As mentioned, these regulations could raise the cost of cigarettes, although making precise estimates is difficult for now. Higher prices, on the other hand, is also the goal of the EU: the more tobacco costs, the fewer people smoke or start smoking, with gains for collective health.

It must be remembered, however, that the Commission’s two novelties are only proposals for the time being. Tobacco industry interests carry a lot of weight in the EU and individual states, and raising taxes is never an easy move politically. It is no accident that attempts to intervene with reforms have failed or stalled several times over the years.

Once again, the path seems uphill. Proposals presented yesterday by the Commission set off negotiations that will last at least two years. They will need the unanimous green light of all 27 EU countries to approve them. Not an easy mission, as voices have already been raised against them, including Italy, Greece and Romania. It is possible that, in the end, the Commission will have to backtrack or accept major compromises on the content of the regulations.

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