An interesting study on the subject of unstable democracies is a study by Anna Lührmann & Staffan I. Lindberg, which explores the idea that we are currently experiencing a ‘third wave’ of autocratisation after an explosion of democracy over the past century.
In their work, Lindberg and Lührmann catalogued three main waves of autocratisation. The first was between 1926 to 1942, which saw the rise of fascist regimes in Europe, the second from 1961 to 1977, which saw the rise of dictators, particularly in South America and Africa, and the third beginning in the 1990s up until their present day in 2017.
As part of their analysis, which assesses 182 countries over more than 100 years, the researchers find big differences between each autocraticasation wave, in both the severity of democratic backsliding and the number of incidents of it happening.
They found that the first and second waves of autocratisation were dominated by tactics leading to the illegal seizure of power, such as a military coup (39% of episodes) or foreign invasion (29%), and by autogolpes, where the chief executive comes to power by legal means but then suddenly abolishes key democratic institutions such as elections or parliaments (32%).
However, the third wave has been more subtle. Autocratisation episodes are longer and steadier. Lindberg and Lührmann designate this kind of slow autocratisation as democratic erosion, which has become the main tactic during the current third wave, accounting for 70% of cases, most prominently, such as the gradual deterioration of democracy in Hungary, Poland, and now in Slovakia.
The rise of Viktor Orban’s ‘illiberal democracy’ has caused alarm over the past decade. Credit: Flikr, Copyright World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org)/Photo by Heinz Tesarek
The data shows that while autocratisation is happening, levels of democracy in countries affected remain much higher than in previous waves. Another interesting insight is that researchers found that the third wave mainly affects democracies, as opposed to autocratic states simply becoming more authoritarian. Although this could be explained by the simple fact that there are more democracies today than there were in, for example, 1940.
Perhaps the most chilling of the article’s conclusions is the author’s discovery that once a country has experienced an autocratisation episode, it is very hard to reverse the process and re-democratise. Indeed, the authors only found 5 cases of successful reversals of democratic erosion (Bolivia in 2015, Ecuador in 2010, Nicaragua in 1999, South Korea in 2014 and Vanuatu in 1996) representing 15% of all cases. The authors write that “very few episodes of autocratization starting in democracies have ever been stopped before countries become autocracies”.
Despite the research being concluded in 2017, the findings seem prescient in the current political climate, which has only seen Russia become more authoritarian in the ensuing years, while even democracies such as the US have seen increasingly draconian measures introduced in Trump’s second presidency, including the undermining of the First Amendment, a clear indicator of democratic erosion.
No King’s rallies took place across the US in 2025. Credit: rawpixel.com
The EU is also having to contend with democratic backsliding. Concerns have been echoed in the halls of the EU parliament, which called for “action against the erosion of EU values in member states” in February 2024, in response to “democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental rights at [being] risk across the EU.”
However, it is not clear how effective that call was. Risk intelligence agency, PRINCEPS, which is based in Central Europe, stated in an article on its website earlier this year that: “Democratic backsliding is no longer a fringe concern, it strikes at the core of what the European Union stands for. From Hungary’s authoritarian shift to growing instability in Poland, Slovakia, and Romania, the EU faces a serious test of its unity and values.”
The struggle that democracies have is that it is a fundamentally faith-based system, requiring civic engagement on the basis of trust and belief in the principles, values, and norms of that democratic society.
In an EU-wide survey from July 2025, only 6% of 16- to 26-year-olds believe their country’s political system functions well and does not require change. Perhaps more alarmingly, only 57% of young Europeans prefer democracy to any other form of government, with 1 in 5 saying they would support an authoritarian still of government under certain circumstances. The survey also found that 39% of young people believe that the EU does not function particularly democratically.
“Democracy is not a given – it needs democrats. When 57 percent of young Europeans say they prefer democracy to any other form of government, it also means that many of them don’t fully support democracy.”
“In countries like Poland, Spain, and France, this figure is only around 50 percent. And among young people who identify as politically right of center and feel economically disadvantaged, support for democracy drops to just a third. These figures show that democracy is under pressure – from both within and without,” says Professor Thorsten Faas of the Free University of Berlin, who provided academic support for the study.