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In the Renaissance camp, at least two politicians are eyeing the Élysée Palace – current Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin and former Prime Minister and current mayor of Le Havre, Édouard Philippe.

On the right, Marine Le Pen was seen as the most serious contender, but after a court barred her from running, Jordan Bardella became the candidate. Meanwhile, the left will most likely put forward its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon once again.

Macron’s Clever Move

For over six decades of the French Fifth Republic, politics were dominated by two main parties: the Republicans and the Socialists. It wasn’t until 2017 that Emmanuel Macron, presenting himself as a centrist candidate, broke this duopoly by attracting voters from both sides.

His success weakened the traditional parties, which went on to record their worst results in history during the 2022 presidential elections: the Republicans – represented by Valérie Pécresse – received less than 5% of the vote, while Socialist Anne Hidalgo garnered only 1.7%.

The upcoming 2027 presidential elections open new opportunities for both parties. President Macron is constitutionally barred from running for a third term.

With public fatigue over the current political setup, growing disillusionment with political extremes, and dissatisfaction with the president and his government, the Republicans and Socialists see a chance to regain their influence.

Will the Familiar System Return?

The Republicans have chosen Bruno Retailleau, the current interior minister known for his tough stance on security, as their new leader. Meanwhile, the Socialists are set to appoint a new first secretary who will guide the party toward the 2027 elections.

Both parties are trying to seize the current political moment to regain lost ground and potentially restore the two-party system that once dominated French politics before the Macron era. They face a significant challenge — not only must they unify internally, but they also need to convince voters that they are capable of effectively governing in today’s political climate.

If they succeed, the French political landscape could once again resemble systems like those in the United Kingdom or the United States.

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