Research by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) shows some worrying trends when it comes to Europe’s workforce. But it also brings hope: with the right changes – like empowering women, improving education systems, and managing migration wisely – the EU can still avoid the worst-case scenarios.
Europe’s workforce is shrinking – and that’s a big deal
The Demographic Earthquake
From 2026, the EU’s population is expected to start declining. That may not sound too dramatic at first, but the long-term effects could be huge. If current trends continue, the EU could lose nearly 43 million workers by 2070 – that’s over 20% of the total labour force.
Why is this happening? Mainly because the share of people participating in the labour market has stagnated in many age and gender groups. On top of that, Europe’s fertility rate has stayed below replacement level since the 1970s.
Instead of assuming everything will stay the same, the JRC study explores how different policy choices might shape the future. The results? Smart, bold decisions could cut projected workforce losses in half. But action needs to happen fast – and on multiple fronts.
Women – The Untapped Potential
Let’s start with one of Europe’s biggest hidden resources: women. Today, far fewer women than men participate in the workforce, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe. The average labour market participation rate for women across the EU is around 67%, compared to over 75% for men.
Sweden, however, shows what’s possible – with nearly 80% of women working. If every EU country reached that level, the projected workforce decline would drop to just 23 million people by 2070 instead of nearly 43 million.
This isn’t just about equality – it’s a smart economic move. To make it work, countries need better support systems for work-life balance, more flexible job options, and strong childcare services. Without those, half the population’s potential will continue to go to waste.
Education That Prepares Us for the Real World
Education is another key part of the solution – but not just any education. Europe needs to invest in skills that match what the job market actually needs.
In one of the JRC’s scenarios, where more people have higher levels of education, the expected labour force drop shrinks significantly – down to 33 million people, or 15.6 percentage points less than the most pessimistic forecasts.
So yes, education matters – but it must be relevant. That means stronger focus on digital, technical and language skills, but also on soft skills like adaptability, communication, and learning how to learn. All of this requires reforming education systems, expanding lifelong learning, and investing in vocational training.
Again, Sweden leads by example: over 40% of its population holds a university degree, and labour force participation among working-age adults has jumped from 82% to 84% in just ten years.
If all EU countries reached similar levels across different demographic groups, the workforce loss by 2070 would be reduced to just 5.9 million people – or 2.8 percentage points.
Migration – A Tool, Not a Threat
The third big piece of the puzzle? Migration. And not just any migration, but well-managed, demand-driven and strategic migration. In a scenario where migration is ignored, the EU could lose nearly 56 million workers by 2070 – the worst-case outcome.
Let’s be clear: without incoming workers from outside, Europe’s population would have already started shrinking a decade ago. Between 2023 and 2050, the number of people living in the EU is expected to fall by 5%, and by 14% by 2070. But thanks to migration and longer life expectancy, the total population is still projected to grow by 9%.
The key, though, is integration. It’s not enough for people to just arrive – they need real opportunities. That means recognising qualifications, removing language and cultural barriers, and promoting internal mobility within the EU to send workers where they’re needed most. The European Commission has already included these priorities in its Action Plan on labour and skills shortages.
Not every region will be hit the same way
Some EU countries face much bigger challenges than others. Central and Eastern Europe is likely to be hit hardest – a result of low birth rates, net emigration, and an ageing population.
In Southern Europe – including Greece, Italy, and Portugal – birth rates are extremely low, sometimes as low as 1.3 children per woman. These countries could see their populations drop by around 10% in the coming decades.
In contrast, countries like France, Germany, and the Netherlands are in a better position thanks to higher immigration rates and relatively lower mortality. The same goes for Sweden, Ireland and Luxembourg, where past migration policies and higher birth rates are expected to keep populations more stable.
The clock is ticking
The EU’s labour market is clearly at a crossroads. The good news is that the data shows it’s not too late. But saving Europe’s workforce will require coordinated action: unlocking women’s potential, transforming education, and embracing well-planned migration.
If we don’t act, the EU might find itself in 2070 with a strong economy – but no people left to keep it running.
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