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EVs on the Rise

From January to September, new passenger car registrations in the EU increased by 0.9% compared to the previous year. September was particularly strong, showing a 10% growth, fueled by solid results in major markets like Germany, Spain, Italy, and France.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) captured 16.1% of the market, up from 12.6% in August 2024. September alone saw an impressive 20% increase in electric car registrations, signaling progress in the transition—though slower than expected.

“This is really something to celebrate. Looking back at where electromobility was ten years ago, you can clearly see how far we’ve come,” comments Jacek Mizak from the Electric Vehicle Promotion Foundation.

Traditional combustion-engine vehicles are losing ground. Gasoline car registrations fell by 18.7%, and diesel by 24.7%, reducing their combined market share to 37% from 46.8% a year earlier.

Europe Favors Big Corporations

The current situation sparks debate. Some industry leaders call it a “manufactured crisis,” blaming delayed policy decisions and protectionism. Others emphasize that raw material shortages and geopolitical tensions are structural threats to key supply chains.

Mizak criticizes the proposals from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

“ACEA highlights the loss of competitiveness for European companies, which cannot keep up with Asian, especially Chinese, firms because they missed the tech revolution and lag behind in electromobility solutions,” he explains. “ACEA suggests extending the transition timeline. But that’s not how it works—European industry needs to invest in change, not postpone it.”

Critics of EU industrial policy argue that European regulations favor major carmakers, neglecting investment in alternative supply sources, public transport, and low-emission solutions. The result is ongoing dependence on imported critical materials.

“One solution could be promoting ‘local content’: if a car is made from materials produced within the EU, the manufacturer could receive additional carbon footprint credits,” Mizak adds.

Volkswagen Rules Europe

“European manufacturers are financially healthy; their reports show no losses and still billions in profits. So, we cannot speak of a crisis as it’s often described,” Mizak emphasizes.

According to ACEA data, Volkswagen dominates the European market with a quarter of sales, while Chinese manufacturers are far behind.

“These cars are technologically advanced but face some growing pains, and building a solid dealer and service network will take years, just as it did for Korean companies,” he notes.

The initial EV rollout focused on premium vehicles due to high technology costs, targeting wealthier buyers, which made electric cars appear as a niche for the rich. However, in recent years, EVs have moved into more affordable segments.

“You no longer need €70,000 in your account to buy an electric car,” Mizak says. “I hope the range for individual buyers will continue to expand, making EVs accessible beyond outright purchase.”

The Plug-in Hybrid Challenge

Data shows that amid uncertainty around EVs, hybrids remain the most popular choice, with a 34.7% market share.

“People choose hybrids because they fear new technologies like full electric vehicles. It takes time—maybe decades—for society to adapt,” Mizak explains. “Most who switch to electric say they’ll never return to combustion engines. That percentage will grow as more affordable options appear.”

Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales are rising rapidly, increasing from 6.9% to 9% in the first nine months, driven by strong growth in Spain, Germany, and Italy. ACEA is pushing for PHEVs to be allowed after 2035, but Mizak strongly opposes this.

“On paper, PHEVs look great, but in reality, they rarely run on electricity because people don’t charge them. That’s just how it is,” he explains.

New 2025 homologation rules under Euro 6e-bis extend the test distance from 300 km to 2,000 km and change the utilization factor—the share of distance driven on electricity—to 54%, dropping to around 30% in 2027.

“This has tripled the CO₂ emissions reported by manufacturers and drastically reduced the PHEV credit. The result will be a gradual phasing out of this technology,” Mizak warns.

Balancing Trade and Sustainability

The automotive industry is at a turning point. Unregulated raw material shortages, geopolitical conflicts, and regulatory pressure may delay Europe’s transition to electromobility, threaten vehicle availability, and require rebuilding supply chains or diversifying imports.

Mizak warns that changing the combustion engine ban date for 2035 could jeopardize the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality plan.

“If we drastically alter or abandon the combustion engine ban, we remove a crucial piece from Europe’s climate neutrality puzzle. Then, the whole picture becomes incomplete, and it may tempt stakeholders to compromise other elements, risking the entire plan. We have to be careful,” he concludes.

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