Thirty years after the Dayton Agreement ended the war in Bosnia, the Western Balkan country is on the cusp of its biggest crisis as EU countries step up sanctions against Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik over secessionist moves that threaten regional stability.
“Mr. Dodik has crossed a red line, and he is no longer someone with whom we can discuss constructive decisions”, said High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt, the official responsible for overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement, on Wednesday, June 4th.
Milorad Dodik, the nationalist President of Republika Srpska – one of Bosnia’s two federal entities – was charged by a Bosnian court with attempting to undermine constitutional order by ignoring the ruling of the High Representative on his separatist policies. The High Representative holds powers ranging from annulling laws to sacking officials. The controversial laws which were championed by Dodik include pulling out of Bosnia’s state-level judicial and police institutions, a first step towards secession according to observers including the EU and Schmidt.
The Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina suspended laws passed by Dodik’s government last Thursday on June 5th, following the landmark conviction. These included banning Bosnia’s state-level judiciary from exercising its authority in the Serb entity, and a “foreign agents” law the court said mirrored Russian legislation curbing freedom of speech and association.
The Bosnian Serb leader faces one year in jail and a six-year ban from politics. He appeared in court on June 12th to appeal his conviction, with the verdict still to come. Dodik dismissed the charges as “nonsense”, reiterating on May 31st that the decisions of the Constitutional Court would not be implemented in Republika Srpska.
“It is the only court in the world which has managed to make itself unconstitutional”, he said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “There is no provision of the Constitution that they have not violated.”
In April, Germany urged the EU to impose sanctions on Republika Srpska officials, calling Milorad Dodik’s policies “unacceptable” and “a threat to security and stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the entire region.” Poland soon followed suit, putting the Bosnian Serb leader on a blacklist in May.
“I can’t say that the international community can offer a way out of this situation”, said Schmidt, adding that sanctions are not intended to hurt the citizens of the Serb entity.
Threats of secession stoke fears of a destabilised Western Balkans at best, and at worst, a return to the violence of the Bosnian war “It’s very clearly the most dangerous moment in Bosnia since 1995”, said Bosnian political analyst Jasmin Mujanović in a recent interview with the Guardian, referring to the year the Dayton Agreement put an end to the war. These worries are echoed strongly by EU institutions, in whose neighbourhood policy Bosnia occupies an important place.
“Milorad Dodik’s secessionist policies are dragging the country back, not forward”, said European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos at a meeting of MEPs at the European Parliament on Tuesday, June 2nd. “The EU door remains wide open, but BiH must now fulfil its remaining obligations”, she added, referring to the European Council’s recognition of Bosnia as a candidate country in 2022.
Dodik has made separatism and a possible union with Serbia a cornerstone of his political image. In January, he threatened that Republika Srpska would secede if he were banned from politics in an interview with the entity’s public RTRS broadcaster.
Whether Dodik follows through on his threats of secession, and how the EU and international community will respond, will have a lasting impact on stability in the Western Balkans.