If you’re following the (many) European elections and government shifts this year, you probably already heard the results of the Czech elections for the Chamber of Deputies (the lower chamber, in other words, the parliament) by now.
In this analysis, we will try to interpret the election results and their implications, while the final government formation has been postponed until the end of November. President Petr Pavel already accepted the resignation of Petr Fiala’s government just at the beginning of November at the Prague Castle. Simultaneously, the current government coallition SPOLU and the STAN movement are still in power to perform their functions until the new ministers take a seat at the table.
“In terms of economic performance, we are doing very well; many countries in Europe could envy our unemployment rate, our inflation rate. And finally, our structural budget deficit in relation to GDP, because the Czech Republic is doing very well in this regard as well,” said Petr Pavel at the concluding official meeting with Fiala.
Head of the House (Speaker of the Chamber of the Deputies) was already appointed, in the end as expected, it is Tomio Okamura. Tomio Okamura, the Japanese-born Czech politician represents the far-right. Previously, he was in trial for inciting hate through distribution of posters with racist and xenophobic undertones. Okamura threatened the police president to leave the office for letting the charges happen.
However, otherwise the appointment of ministers is stalled because Babiš needs to solve a conflict of interest because of his sole ownership of the Agrofert company, and the controversy surrounding Filip Turek and the investigation into his history of racist, sexist and homophobic comments online. These, now deleted posts, made Babiš reconsider his government structure, and said, if proven true make Turek impossible to appoint. According to some members of the still-reigning coalition, the prosecution of the leaders Andrej Babiš and Tomio Okamura play a major role in the government appointment, which is also yet to be solved.
Who is the (Old) New Andrej Babiš?
Andrej Babiš served as a prime minister already between 2017 and 2021, and is set to be the next one. The billionaire populist politician has his own way of doing politics. Likened to Trump, he likes to say that he would run the country like a company, thus better than the current “system” and “corrupt politicians”. Born in Slovakia, Babiš is also known for his family, a powerful member of the communist elite in Czechoslovakia. He started to gain wealth in the 90s, after the fall of the communist dictatorship in Czechoslovakia. The company that earned him the status of a billionaire is Agrofert, an agricultural and chemical company. How he turned from director to owner remains murky.
His unhappiness with the state of the country led him to enter politics, first as a Minister of Finance and then prime minister between 2017 and 2021. In his political career, he was connected to the Stork’s Nest case, an EU subsidy misuse scandal. The proceedings in the case are still ongoing.
How Did the Elections Go: A Summary
Even though ANO is a pro-European party, the image of Babiš is not universally positive. In international coverage, he is known as the populist billionaire, known for his misused EU funding scandal.
According to PAQ Research, the turnout was 68.9% of the population, and increased especially in the rural regions in which traditionally ANO dominated the polls. Additionally, this year marked the first year when a vote via post was possible for Czechs travelling or living abroad.
Andrej Babiš of ANO party (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, meaning “yes” in Czech) won with 34.6% of the vote, the incumbent SPOLU [together] coalition of the current prime minister Petr Fiala came second with 23%. The turnout was one of the highest in the country’s independent history.
ANO seems to have taken over some of the anti-system voters and voters from other opposition parties. Regional infrastructure and the level of poverty were a strong predictor of the choices that voters make on their ballots.
Already on the Sunday following the elections that took place on October 3rd and 4th, uniquely over two days, Babiš met with the Czech president Petr Pavel. Pavel did not appoint him to form the government immediately. The talks started with whether the government continues with the ammunition initiative to support Ukraine, which ANO had a problem with since the campaign and has been an important topic already during the campaign period. The Czech Republic has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, since the start of the full scale invasion in 2022. Babiš has not been pro-Russian during his campaigning, but has been known for taking whichever side is more convenient.
The Slovakia-Hungary-Czech Republic Trio
Analysts fear that Babiš’s rule will bring the government closer to Slovakia and Hungary with their increasingly pro-Russian stances, manifesting through blocking sanctions against Russia or threatening to do so. Last year, Babiš and Orbán (among others) founded the Patriots for Europe group in the EU Parliament, mainly to represent nationalist politics, critical of climate policies like the Green Deal and proposing strong anti-immigration rhetoric.
“Fico and Orbán might be celebrating but they’re not the players who matter at the European level,” said Tomáš Weiss, associate professor of international relations at Charles University in Prague for PBS.
Image by Miloslav Hamřík from Pixabay.