The New START treaty expires in February 2026, and its verification mechanisms have long stopped functioning. The world is entering a new age of three-way nuclear competition between the United States, Russia, and China.<\/p>\n
Events at the end of October may turn out to be the moment when a three-decade period of strategic stability \u2014 built on treaties between nuclear powers \u2014 effectively ended.<\/p>\n
On 26 October, the Kremlin announced a \u201csuccessful\u201d and \u201cfinal\u201d test of the 9M730 Burevestnik strategic cruise missile, known to NATO as SSC-X-9 Skyfall. Three days later, Russia showcased the \u201cPoseidon\u201d nuclear-powered torpedo. Both weapons use nuclear propulsion and are declared to have \u201cunlimited range\u201d while being capable of carrying nuclear warheads.<\/p>\n
On 31 October, President Donald Trump made an announcement that sparked widespread international outrage.<\/p>\n
\u201cDue to the testing programs of other countries, I have directed the Department of War to begin testing our nuclear weapons on equal terms,\u201d Trump wrote on Truth Social<\/a>.<\/p>\n Security expert Mariusz Marsza\u0142ek argues that Russia is using such demonstrations to signal its readiness for strategic rivalry with the U.S., despite its losses in the war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a message to Washington: Russia may be losing in a conventional conflict, but it remains a nuclear power that cannot be ignored,\u201d he stresses.<\/p>\n The U.S. decision to restart nuclear weapons testing was met with criticism and fears of destabilizing what remains of the global arms-control system. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said the move was meant to \u201cconfirm the reliability of the American arsenal,\u201d emphasizing that U.S. weapons are \u201cfully functional but require regular checks.\u201d<\/p>\n Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev noted that<\/a> \u201calthough the United States never ratified the CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty)<\/a>, it has not withdrawn its signature.\u201d He added that even without ratification, Washington is obligated to refrain from actions that undermine the treaty\u2019s purpose.<\/p>\n UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq urged all players to avoid steps that could escalate tensions. \u201cWe must avoid any nuclear actions that could lead to miscalculation or escalation with catastrophic consequences. We cannot forget the devastating legacy of more than 2,000 nuclear tests conducted in the past 80 years,\u201d Haq said<\/a>.<\/p>\n The New START treaty, signed in April 2010 and in force since February 2011, formally remains in effect until 5 February 2026. It sets limits for both the U.S. and Russia: 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, 700 deployed delivery systems, and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers.<\/p>\n This is a significant reduction compared with the original START I treaty from 1991, which allowed 6,000 warheads and 1,600 launchers.<\/p>\n However, for many months New START has been functioning only in theory. Its verification system has collapsed.<\/p>\n In February 2023, Vladimir Putin announced the \u201csuspension\u201d of Russia\u2019s participation in the treaty, citing \u201chostile Western actions\u201d and alleged U.S. technical violations.<\/p>\n The Biden administration responded in June 2023, stating that Russia was not complying with the treaty\u2019s provisions and imposing reciprocal measures \u2014 suspending data exchanges on nuclear arsenals, notifications about system status, and telemetry information from missile tests.<\/p>\n A U.S. State Department report suggested<\/a> that Russia likely exceeded the 1,550-warhead limit last year. Without inspections or data sharing, verification has become nearly impossible.<\/p>\n According to<\/a> General Valery Gerasimov, the October Burevestnik test involved a 15-hour flight covering 14,000 kilometers at roughly 933 km\/h.<\/p>\n Marsza\u0142ek explains that Burevestnik \u201ccan maneuver repeatedly, change course, and approach targets from unpredictable directions, making radar detection extremely difficult.\u201d<\/p>\n Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insisted that the test involved \u201conly the propulsion system\u201d and was \u201cnot a nuclear test.\u201d He stressed that Russia \u201cdid not violate the CTBT, as no detonation occurred.\u201d<\/p>\n Marsza\u0142ek adds that the missile uses a miniature nuclear reactor as a ramjet propulsion system, theoretically giving it unlimited range.<\/p>\n The arms-control expert notes that Burevestnik is a cruise missile that Russia claims has \u201cunlimited range\u201d thanks to a nuclear-powered scramjet engine.<\/p>\n \u201cIt works like a jet engine in which a small reactor heats air to extreme temperatures, generating thrust,\u201d Marsza\u0142ek explains.<\/p>\n Unlike traditional cruise missiles such as Tomahawk or Kalibr, Burevestnik is not constrained by fuel capacity. \u201cAll conventional missiles must carry enough fuel for the flight, forcing engineers to balance range and warhead weight,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n On 2 October, Russia held a launch ceremony for the new nuclear submarine Khabarovsk, designed specifically to carry Poseidon torpedoes.<\/p>\n \u201cThis weapon is more powerful than intercontinental missiles. There is nothing like it today,\u201d the Russian president said.<\/p>\n Russian officials framed the presentation of new weapon systems as part of their strategic nuclear deterrence.<\/p>\n Kosachev described<\/a> the weapons as Russia\u2019s response to Western actions. \u201cIn recent years, the West has acted arrogantly, assuming it would face no resistance. Now it sees that Russia\u2019s answer is powerful \u2014 and its name is Oreshnik, Burevestnik, and Poseidon,\u201d he declared. Oreshnik is a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.<\/p>\n The global CTBTO monitoring system detected no signs of nuclear explosions. CTBTO Executive Secretary Dr. Robert Floyd warned that any nuclear test would be \u201charmful and destabilizing.\u201d<\/p>\n Neither the Burevestnik nor Poseidon test produced any signals indicating a nuclear detonation. Although Moscow formally avoids treaty violations, testing nuclear-powered weapons carries severe risks of radioactive contamination.<\/p>\n The Burevestnik program has long faced technical issues. In August 2019, during a test at the Nyonoksa base on the White Sea, the missile crashed into the water, and its reactor exploded during recovery operations. Two soldiers and five Rosatom engineers were killed, and radiation levels in the area spiked.<\/p>\nInternational outrage<\/h3>\n
New START: a treaty that exists only on paper<\/h3>\n
Burevestnik: a \u201cFlying Chernobyl\u201d in a legal grey zone<\/h3>\n
Burevestnik: a missile with \u201cno range limit\u201d<\/h3>\n
The Poseidon torpedo test<\/h3>\n
Monitoring systems confirm: no nuclear explosions<\/h3>\n