{"id":81999,"date":"2026-02-04T17:18:20","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T17:18:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/how-permanent-is-permafrost-and-what-its-thaw-means-for-the-world\/"},"modified":"2026-02-04T17:19:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T17:19:21","slug":"wie-dauerhaft-ist-permafrost-und-was-bedeutet-sein-auftauen-fur-die-welt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wie-dauerhaft-ist-permafrost-und-was-bedeutet-sein-auftauen-fur-die-welt\/","title":{"rendered":"Wie dauerhaft ist Permafrost \u2013 und was bedeutet sein Auftauen f\u00fcr die Welt?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

You may have heard of <\/span>permafrost<\/span><\/a>, especially if you live in the northern hemisphere. If not, then a brief tutorial is probably necessary, since a significant tectonic climate change is occurring as I write this article, as you read this article, and even before, long enough ago to become a news story\u2014though not sufficiently covered. Permafrost is soil and subsoil that remains at a temperature of 0\u00b0C or below for at least two consecutive years. It contains mixtures of soil, stones, and old organic material that has not decomposed because it remained frozen. In the Arctic, it <\/span>covers<\/span><\/a> about 25% of the land area of the northern hemisphere, with widespread distribution in Siberia, Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and mountainous areas (e.g., Scandinavia, the Alps). Above it is a seasonal “active layer” of soil that thaws and freezes every year. Although the term describes “freezing,” this layer does not melt completely; it simply “thaws” during the summer. However, with the current global warming, the ice in the permafrost is now beginning to melt more and more, causing significant changes to the landscape and climate.<\/span><\/p>\n

In recent years, the Arctic has been <\/span>warming<\/span><\/a> much faster than the rest of the planet, with measurements showing that Arctic temperatures have <\/span>risen<\/span><\/a> three to four times faster* than the global average. The annual average Arctic atmospheric temperature has <\/span>risen<\/span><\/a> by ~3\u00b0C since the 1970s, and in 2023 and 2024, the Arctic <\/span>experienced<\/span><\/a> sharp warm periods (heat waves), with record surface temperatures and heavy rainfall. As the air temperature rises, the frozen ground melts immediately, so that the increase in Arctic temperatures above zero has almost <\/span>doubled<\/span><\/a> the area of thawing ground in the northern hemisphere.<\/span><\/p>\n

Drastic environmental changes pose broader challenges to countries directly affected by them. In Siberia, for example, temperatures are <\/span>rising<\/span><\/a> almost twice as fast as the global average. This has already caused widespread thawing: frozen ground covers 65% of Russia, and in many areas it is melting for the first time in centuries. In eastern Siberia, scientists have discovered thick layers of subsoil filled with the remains of plants and animals from the last ice age, which are now coming to light. At the same time, across Alaska in 2024, the second-highest frost temperatures in <\/span>recorded<\/span><\/a> history were recorded. The duration and intensity of summer fires in North America, Siberia, and Scandinavia are also steadily increasing, with 2024 being the second worst year for emissions from fires north of the Arctic Circle.<\/span><\/p>\n

The slow process of permafrost melting is called gradual thaw, and the sudden thermokarst (landslides and soil <\/span>collapse<\/span><\/a> when ice melts) has already been observed in multiple locations, with dramatic images of wells clogging up, roads and railways “sinking,” houses tilting, and even entire areas thawing and flooding. In addition, as the permafrost melts, it <\/span>releases<\/span><\/a> greenhouse gases that have been trapped for thousands of years, containing a total of approximately 1.4 trillion tons of carbon\u2014almost twice the amount currently in the atmosphere. When permafrost decomposes completely, microbes break down plant debris and <\/span>release<\/span><\/a> CO\u2082 and methane (CH\u2084). Methane is an even more powerful greenhouse gas (trapping about 28 times more heat than CO\u2082 over 100 years).<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent studies confirm that the Arctic region has now become a major emitter of greenhouse gases. For example, international research <\/span>concludes<\/span><\/a> that between 2000 and 2020, the absolute absorption of CO\u2082 by vegetation was offset by CO\u2082 and CH\u2084 emissions from lakes, rivers, and fires, with the result that the region as a whole is contributing to global warming. In particular, the wetlands and lakes of North America and Siberia emit large amounts of methane. Even fields in Alaska, which traditionally <\/span>acted<\/span><\/a> as carbon sinks, are now becoming sources: in one Arctic ecosystem in Alaska, a shift from a net CO\u2082 sink to a source was recorded, with a parallel increase in methane emissions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thawing also affects other aspects of the natural environment. Large-scale thawing creates deformities in the ground (sometimes referred to as “thermokarst”), with the surface <\/span>swelling<\/span><\/a> or sinking into gravelly pits and swamps. It causes an increase in wet ecosystems and changes in the management of fauna and flora. At the same time, the situation is made more dramatic by the release of heavy metals such as mercury, which were trapped in frozen soils, with the risk of water contamination. In essence, the <\/span>melting<\/span><\/a> of frozen soil changes hydrology (more groundwater and new flows), creates summer swamps, and intensifies coastal erosion. According to a recent report, Arctic coasts are now being destroyed (eroded) more than 50% faster than at the end of the 20th century, mainly due to the loss of ice and frozen soil. This threatens not only the natural environment, but also traditional livelihoods (e.g., hunting, reindeer herding), which support the lives of local populations.<\/span><\/p>\n

It’s always about the communities and politics <\/p>\n

The gradual collapse of permafrost has serious consequences for northern communities, where infrastructure and homes are at <\/span>risk<\/span><\/a>, roads are breaking, railways are warping, buildings tilt or sink as the bedrock ice cover disappears. In Alaska, for example, water pipes have already been found to be bursting and houses are tilting as the ground destabilises. In remote and isolated villages, residents are seeing cemeteries emerge as graves freeze and thaw again. The infrastructure that locals see <\/span>deteriorating<\/span><\/a> means limited access to water, roads, and services, increasing the risk of accidents and injuries. Even industrial facilities (reservoirs, boreholes, waste storage facilities) that were basically <\/span>supported<\/span><\/a> by ice cover are collapsing, with the possibility of toxic or radioactive substances being released into the environment.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Flooding, melted water, and toxic stuff like mercury are also a threat to health. The release of stored bacteria and viruses is <\/span>causing<\/span><\/a> concern: researchers were able to revive a 46,000-year-old worm from Arctic ice, while warnings about ancient pathogens “waking up” are numerous, undoubtedly raising concerns about consequences similar to those of COVID-19. Overall, the lives and health of residents are <\/span>threatened<\/span><\/a> by poor-quality drinking water, pollution, and even psychological stress when communities are forced to relocate.<\/span><\/p>\n

The wounds to the economy cannot be considered minor; studies <\/span>estimate<\/span><\/a> that in Alaska alone, damage to buildings and roads from thawing could reach $37\u201351 billion by the end of the century. In Russia, where large oil and gas pipelines pass through frozen ground, it is <\/span>estimated<\/span><\/a> that approximately 35,000 failures are recorded annually, a significant percentage of which are due to the movement of foundations caused by thawing. In practice, the maintenance and repair of such infrastructure already costs hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition, by 2060, many Arctic villages and infrastructure will have to be <\/span>evacuated<\/span><\/a> or radically reinforced. According to estimates, by 2060 almost all current settlements with permafrost \u2013 except for a few in Norway and Greenland \u2013 will have lost the frozen ground on which they stand.<\/span><\/p>\n

These costs are already visible in government figures. In Canada, a government report <\/span>foresees<\/span><\/a> annual losses of $15.4 billion CAD (US$11.7 billion) from climate change-related disasters by 2030, while climate impacts could reduce GDP by 1.5% by 2030. CAD (11.7 billion USD) from climate change-related disasters by 2030, while climate impacts could reduce the country’s GDP by 23.7 billion CAD annually by 2025. This led the Canadian government to adopt the first national climate change adaptation strategy in 2023, which includes specific measures for thawing frozen ground.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, on politics, worldwide, reactions range from organized initiatives to serious obstructionism. Canada and the Scandinavian countries have begun to incorporate the threat of permafrost into national adaptation policies. The EU, through the Joint Research Centre (JRC), has <\/span>launched<\/span><\/a> a project (FROST-QUAKE) to study how thawing permafrost in seismically active zones threatens critical infrastructure. In contrast, in countries such as Russia, <\/span>planning<\/span><\/a> began very late, with a national adaptation plan only being published in 2019 after the ratification of the Paris Agreement. It is characteristic that President Putin had underestimated the impact over the previous decade, believing that some would benefit (less money for furs, better harvests). However, climate disasters (e.g., in Norilsk in 2020) <\/span>show<\/span><\/a> that Siberian development depends on a fragile north.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the level of international organizations, global climate plans (national CO\u2082 targets \u2013 NDCs) do not <\/span>take<\/span><\/a> into account emissions from permafrost thawing. Experts warn that this policy gap risks undermining the Paris targets, as these emissions will multiply in a warmer climate. Furthermore, despite fluctuations in international politics (e.g., the Ukraine crisis and tensions in Russia, changes in the US administration), the Arctic Council (a collective body of Arctic Circle states) is closely monitoring the issue: its latest report notes that the melting of ice and permafrost is a “matter of increasing concern” for both indigenous populations and politicians in the Arctic. Nevertheless, cooperation on concrete measures to <\/span>address<\/span><\/a> this risk is insufficient. An analyst at the Woodwell Climate Research Center points out that, despite the many policy options available, the US “no longer leads” Arctic research and policy responses due to geopolitical considerations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The counterargument is that the longer global carbon emission reduction measures are delayed, the more <\/span>urgent<\/span><\/a> it becomes to plan for the protection of frozen ground. Even if the trend cannot be reversed, it is believed that even a partial slowdown in melting could alleviate the worst effects: for example, theoretical scientists are investigating ideas for “replanting” the landscape (e.g. the Pleistocene Park experiment in Siberia, where grazing animals eat shrubs and compact the snow to help the ground refreeze). To date, there is no common international agreement focusing on the economic consequences of the phenomenon; therefore, analysts are calling on politicians to immediately incorporate scientific assessments of permafrost into their policies so that the Arctic crisis does not spiral out of control.<\/span><\/p>\n

The implications are already evident and quantifiable, from broken roads in Greenlandic villages to submerged schools in Alaska, with billions spent on restoration each year. Unless states and organizations collaborate effectively \u2014 reducing CO\u2082 emissions globally while planning adaptation measures in the Arctic \u2014 the permanently frozen ground could go from being a passive witness to change to an active accelerator of it, at every level. Moreover, United Nations Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres has delivered almost apocalyptic warnings about climate change. In a 2023 speech he <\/span>declared<\/span><\/a> that <\/span>\u201cHumanity has opened the gates of hell\u201d<\/span><\/i> as <\/span>\u201chorrendous heat is having horrendous effects,\u201d <\/span><\/i>and he sharply condemned the \u201c<\/span>foot-dragging\u2026 and the naked greed\u201d of world leaders fueling this crisis. He bluntly warned that \u201cwe cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuels,\u201d<\/span><\/i> stressing that only an immediate end to fossil fuel use can avert catastrophe.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In stark contrast, former President Donald Trump promotes the aggressive expansion of fossil fuels as a patriotic policy. Trump is <\/span>known<\/span><\/a> for his slogan “drill, baby, drill,” and boasted that “the United States has more oil and natural gas than any other country on the planet \u2014 and we’re going to use it,” even declaring that “energy security is national security.” The gap between these views highlights a sharp political divide: one side sees climate action as an existential moral imperative, while the other prioritizes national power through the expansion of oil and gas production. Ultimately, this battle has transformed climate policy into a clash between a global moral crusade and an aggressive energy-nationalist agenda, reflecting a deep political polarization.<\/span><\/p>\n

And indeed, from this point onwards, the COPs seem to collapse into a cycle of declarations without any real effect: ambitious words, weak commitments, postponements for “later.” Climate crisis policy ceases to be a technical issue and becomes a purely moral and ideological one. The question is no longer whether we know what is happening to the permafrost or the climate \u2014 we do. The real question is: which side are you on? Are you with the bees or with the wolves?<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You may have heard of permafrost, especially if you live in the northern hemisphere. If not, then a brief tutorial is probably necessary, since a significant tectonic climate change is occurring as I write this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":355,"featured_media":82085,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[698,567,17591,637],"tags":[22323,22324,22325,22326,22327,3493,3494,3495,22328,22329,22330,22331,22332,9189,5156,22333,22334,22335,3500,22336,22337,22338,22339,22340,22341,3501,22342,22343,22344,22345,22346,22347,5172],"post_formats":[645],"coauthors":[4037],"class_list":["post-81999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aktuelle-angelegenheiten","category-allgemein","category-clima","category-die-punkte-verbinden","tag-adaptation-strategies","tag-arctic","tag-arctic-amplification","tag-arctic-politics","tag-carbon-cycle","tag-climate-change-de","tag-climate-crisis-de","tag-climate-policy-de","tag-climate-responsibility","tag-climate-science","tag-co2","tag-ecosystem-disruption","tag-environmental-change","tag-environmental-justice-de","tag-extreme-weather-de","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-frozen-soil","tag-global-emissions","tag-global-warming-de","tag-greenhouse-gases","tag-indigenous-communities","tag-infrastructure-collapse","tag-melting-ice","tag-methane","tag-methane-emissions","tag-paris-agreement-de","tag-permafrost","tag-planetary-tipping-points","tag-polar-regions","tag-thawing-ground","tag-thermokarst","tag-tundra","tag-wildfires-de","post_formats-artikel"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81999"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81999\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82001,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81999\/revisions\/82001"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81999"},{"taxonomy":"post_formats","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_formats?post=81999"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pulse-z.eu\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=81999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}